South Sudan: What is the return on Kenya’s investment in the Sudan peace process?
South Sudan is finally independent and Kenya can justifiably take the credit for the long and tireless involvement that has culminated in what we witnessed a few days ago- the emergence of a new State- South Sudan. There are many teething problems that await the new state. Kenya knew all along that the people of South Sudan seceded on January 2005 and were awaiting the referendum to stamp that independence. But Kenya, one of the key countries in the negotiations has terribly failed in supporting the establishment of the South Sudan state in many ways. Kenya is the biggest economy in the sub region and should have been at the forefront in supporting a viable private sector engagement in South Sudan. Other than a few independent actors operating amidst a myriad handicaps the Kenya government has not worked to support an enabling environment for private sector to invest in this virgin market.
The Development of basic infrastructure for South Sudan is part of the key challenges in the period after the declaration of independence. Establishment of institutions for human capital development, healthcare, economic development and for the provision of other social services are what will distinguish South Sudan as a progressing society or a failing society. Kenya with her well established human capital in various fields and with close cultural and linguistic affinities should help to support this new state in many ways. This has not happened. Of the three delegations in Juba one by the President, the Prime Minister and the Vice President, none had private sector actors- All had a retinue of politicos and their hangers-on.
Support for a viable sub regional private sector operating in Juba and other towns creating jobs for the nationals will in part determine if south Sudan will eventually emerge as a viable state. The people of South Sudan have over the past six years looked to the rest of the sub region to assist in the provision of some of these basics services aimed at availing opportunities for the South Sudan State to create a pool of trained human capital to run departments of the independence state. East African region even with all the support that it has provided in the realization of independence has to a great extent failed the South Sudan in terms of linking the new country into the sub region economy and development and to the rest of the world.
The sub region has left the new country to the machinations of the North Sudan which for all intents and purposes even with all the ‘conciliatory pronouncements’ has always worked to thwart the realization of independence. Kenya realized very early knew it is the gateway for South Sudan development. In addition, Kenya has also hosted a lot of Southern Sudanese throughout their struggle for independence knew that South Sudan had oil long before the signing of the comprehensive peace agreement in Nairobi but the political elite while purporting to be pursuing national interest in the Sudan peace process has not put in place the necessary infrastructure to link South Sudan to the sub regional economy. The Lamu port that would have been instrumental in opening up the northern parts of Kenya and linking them to then South Sudan has been on ‘feasibility studies’ for the past half a decade, the rail road that was to link the South Sudan to the rest of east Africa has been a pipe dream.
In addition, existing infrastructure that should have been upgraded to support the establishment of a viable Juba economy has not been improved. For instance the Lokichoggio Air facility which was critical in Operational Lifeline Sudan in the past for essential services during the Sudan civil war has been in a state of utter neglect and yet this facility would have been useful in supporting the linking of South Sudan to Kenya and to the rest of the world.
If Kenya were serious about the Vision 2030, the Vision would have incorporated South Sudan factor. How else other than the fact that instead of the Kenya pipeline from Mombasa carrying refined petroleum products it should be carrying crude originating from the oil fields of South Sudan and Uganda for refining and export ! But this might never happen, Uganda will continue pursuing the possibilities of refining her Albertine oil in the precincts of Lake Albert while South Sudan will continue to endure the blackmail and occasional shut down from the North because the South can’t drink their crude while Kenya spends billions of tax payers money in her diplomacy at its best. It is high time that Kenya get to know the cost of the Sudan peace process on the tax payers.
Granted that Kenya has been offering capacity development through the Kenya South Sudan Liaison office (KESSULO) including other support services like fast tracking South Sudan imports, supply of refined products and especially petroleum based goods as well as providing an aviation hub for Juba-bound traffic in addition to of course having a peaceful neighbour in the North, but these can not offset the cost of the peace process. The war lasting 20 years with refugee inflows to Kenya, the ten an half years of negotiations culminating in the CPA and the six years of baby-sitting the North and South to honour the CPA. In this respect alone the Ministry of Foreign Affairs ought to have refined our Strategic interests and put in place a mechanism for achieving them. But up until late last year, the Kenya policy and pursuit of our national interest was very ambivalent- supporting the South while acting a suitor for the North. This was evident even during the promulgation of our constitution when the Kibaki administration did seem to shoot itself on the foot when it invited president El Basher to Nairobi.
If Kenya had a clear strategy regarding South Sudan, the road from Kitale will not be in the present state. Kenyan private sector had already shown the way by exploring the emerging market in that part of Africa, but the government has always dragged her feet in terms of improving the infrastructure for the private sector to make money, create opportunities and support overall development. The South Africans, for instance are clear about what they seeks to attain from South Sudan in exchange for their support for the peace process. It should be remembered that South Africa attained her independence when Kenya was already engaged with the possible resolution of the Sudan civil war. But while Nairobi was thumping her chest about having been instrumental in the resolution of the Sudan crisis with the signing of the CPA, Thabo Mbeki, then South African President and now Chair man of the AU High Level Implementation panel on the Sudan was in Juba with a plane load of Private sector actors seeking to explore opportunities for her private Sector. It is a shame that even though we knew that Kenya is a short distance to service South Sudan, our goods still pass through Uganda making them more expensive in Juba. We have not prioritized the road from Kitale to the South Sudan Border even as Uganda and South Sudan have begun work to tarmac the road from Gulu to Juba!
In my view, Kenya needs to do much more; it needs realize that South Sudan looks up to the largest economy in Eastern Africa to provide leadership in realizing regional development. It is imperative that the Lamu Port and the road be prioritized as a matter of urgency. Being a project of a large magnitude, the government needs to establish an Authority in charge of the Lamu Port and the construction of the Northern corridor road connecting, Lamu and Moyale to Southern Sudan. This not only in the interest of tapping the emerging market in South Sudan but also for purposes of linking that part of Kenya to the rest of the Country as well as to Southern Ethiopia which has already developed first class transport network on her side of the border. We propose that the Authority be inter-ministerial consisting of the Ministry of transport, public works, culture, water, energy, lands, defence, and information. Such an Authority should have direct reporting channels to the President and to Parliament. This on the basis of our believe and assessment that such a project of well over USD 30 million cannot be managed by one ministry successfully.
Further, there is need for information on this matter both top the grassroots persons and on the project itself. The argument against the building a pipeline to connect South Sudan when the prospected oil reserves are just about fifteen years of exploitation does not wash because South Sudan will need oil imports even though her wells dry within that period. Uganda has discovered oil reserves in her territories which she will very soon need to export but we have not positioned ourselves to charge pipeline fees which from the experience of the North-South Sudan might be more lucrative than exploiting oil ourselves!
What needs to happen? Start the implementation of the Lamu Port as a matter of urgency in order to help support the independent South Sudan Republic from “suffocating tendencies” of the North. Work at the sub region and in the framework of the East African Community of five plus South Sudan to fast track infrastructure inter linkages between Kenya- Ethiopia-Uganda and South Sudan. This area well thought out and managed will be the next arena of fast sub regional economic development. My message to President Kibaki- Please wake up to this emerging market! The Ministry of Foreign Affairs please account to Kenyans the value for our investment in the Sudan Peace process and especially in respect to one key question- How have you positioned this country to benefit from the emerging market in South Sudan?
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Atunga Atuti O.J is the Chief executive Officer, East African School of Human Rights and Convener of the Nairobi Policy Dialogues on the Sudan
email:eajournal@email.com
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